First Interesting GOP Straw Poll from Iowa


It has begun.

What fascinates The Pink Flamingo is the fact that the first major Iowa straw poll closely mirrors the most recent PPP Poll.

“…Huckabee currently has 23% to Romney’s 22%, Gingrich and Palin at 21%, Ron Paul at 4%, and unnamed others at 2%, with 7% undecided. As the below chart shows, the four frontrunners have been converging toward each other in the six months PPP has polled the race, with either Romney, Huckabee, or Gingrich on top in any given month, and the other three bunched close behind, with Palin consistently in third or fourth. Paul’s support has gradually declined, and while Romney continues to win many state primaries that will determine the actual delegate counts at the convention, his national support has been eaten into by the entrance of Gingrich and the persistence of Huckabee and Palin….”

Two things fascinate me about this poll.

  1. Newt is #3 thus the Esquire hit.  The Pink Flamingo is beginning to suspect Newt is the comer in the whole field.
  2. Ron Paul is chopped liver – the man has no status at all.  Is this terribly important in the grand scheme of things?  Terribly.  The Ron Paul presence is massive on the web, with the tea parties, and with the nut jobs who want to destroy good Republicans.  Obviously his importance has been greatly exaggerated.

My editor is Canadian.  He was a HUGE Obama lover.  He is a big time Canadian liberal.  We had a discussion about the 2012 field while he was here in town.  His choice for us? Newt!  Imagine that – a liberal Canadian.  He likes Newt.  He likes his reason, his logic, and the fact that he is a very reputable historian.

It looks to me that the Republican who does get the nomination is going to be the person who runs a campaign the way Reagan did in 1980 – terribly positive, red, white, blue, and what is good and beautiful about this country.  The campaign must be terribly patriotic and extremely positive – extremely positive.  If this is the case, my money is on either Huck or Newt.

Please pardon The Pink Flamingo

The Iowa Republican

“…The Iowa Straw Poll is an event sponsored by the Republican Party of Iowa and has historically winnowed the field the presidential candidates the summer before the actual nominating process begins.  That means that one year from now, the presidential field will probably contract, just like it did in 2007, 1999, and 1996.

With all of that in mind, polled 399 Iowa Republicans who consider themselves likely voters.  We wanted to see what they think about the potential field of candidates as the 2012 presidential nomination gets underway.

The poll shows that the 2012 contest is going to begin right where the 2008 Iowa Caucuses left off, with Mike Huckabee leading Mitt Romney.  Huckabee comes out on top of the poll garnering 22 percent, Romney finishes second with 18 percent, and Newt Gingrich finishes surprisingly well with 14 percent in third place.  Sarah Palin finishes a disappointing fourth with 11 percent.  Texas Congressman Ron Paul garnered 5 percent, while Pawlenty, and South Dakota Senator John Thune each received 1 percent.

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum garnered support in the poll but it did not surpass the one percent threshold.  Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and Texas Governor Rick Perry did not register any support in the poll.  Twenty three percent of those surveyed remain undecided.  Huckabee and Romney’s strength in the poll is expected as both were able to generate a lot of interest with their 2008 campaigns.  Obviously, many people remain loyal to the candidates they supported in 2008.

Romney has already sent signals that he will likely run again in 2012.  His leadership PAC has raised more money than any other potential candidate, and he continues to travel the county.  While he is expected to be the frontrunner nationally, Huckabee will be the frontrunner in Iowa if he decides to make another try for the Republican nomination.

If there is a surprise in the poll, it’s the strength of Newt Gingrich.  Gingrich has been a frequent visitor to Iowa over the past decade.  He has headlined events for the Republican Party of Iowa, various political candidates, and held activist workshops across the state.  His affection for and understanding of Iowa will definitely be an asset should he seek the Republican nomination….”

The internals from PPP are fascinating.

Public Policy Polling