Counting Those Elephants Before They Hatch?


Remember all the way back to 2010?  The world was coming to an end.  Obama’s Administration would cook the books on the census and ruin it for the GOP.  The sky was falling.  We could not get up.  It was all over as the SEIU and ACORN were to rule the world.

If the con-census (pardon the pun) in 2010 was the end of life as we knew it via the Obama Census, then perhaps all the hype that the current numbers help the GOP is just that – hype.

The daily mime is the GOP is picking up “Clout” with the census changes.

“…This is about as bad as it could get for Democrats, and as good as it could get for Republicans. The next GOP presidential candidate gets six free electoral votes from South Carolina, Texas, Utah. The Democratic caucus in the House is about to see internal warfare in the rust belt and northeast, as their members are forced into Thunderdome battle for the diminished number of seats. Only in Illinois, I think, will the Democrats be able to create a map that hurts the GOP’s newly elected members and takes back a seat or two….”

Conservative Home:

“...This is indeed a good news story for the GOP politically, but it’s an even more important policy story for the GOP. People generally do not move from one state to another because they prefer the politics of the party in power, and climate alone can’t explain the western and southern trajectory of U.S. migration. California, after all, has been losing population (though it was spared a lost seat, a possibility many had been predicting). Movement is not random and without explanation, however.

People and businesses head to places that have a good quality of life, reasonable cost of living, the prospect of upward mobility, and the best chance of growing new enterprises. The states that have gained the most seats are the ones that, in general, have the best policy environments: favorable taxes, lower costs of doing business, good infrastructure, and less expensive public sectors….”

The world is not all conservative.  People who are liberal are also looking for the good life.  Anyone who considers the new seat as a GOP gain in Arizona is out of their mind.  Arizona’s growth is being promoted by refugees from California.  The state is growing more and more liberal by the hour.  Same thing in Nevada, which was once a guaranteed win for the GOP.  Those same refugees are moving to New Mexico, which is one reason the state is growing more liberal.  Granted the refugees from California are the Hollywood A List, but still, they are major liberals.

The growth in Florida has been liberal.  The growth in North Carolina has been liberal.

It is foolish to count those elephants before they hatch!

The NYTimes has a great chart.

NY Times
NY Times

There is much joy in Mudville now that the mighty Dems have struck out – or have they?

“...The new chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said the release of Census data is far from a disaster for Democrats.

“Today’s release of U.S. Census data pours cold water on Republican’s hype that redistricting is a disaster for Democrats,” Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) said in a statement Tuesday. “Democratic communities and constituencies have grown in size in states like Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Washington. In states that will lose a seat, the number of Republicans who will be competing with each other creates opportunities for House Democrats.”

Tuesday’s announcement doesn’t provide a full picture of the redistricting process. It won’t be until early next spring, when the Census Bureau releases its detailed state-by-state population data, that it will be clear where the population gains or losses have occurred within states and districts, which could make it harder to gerrymander some maps.

“This doesn’t look favorable to Democrats, certainly,” said professor Michael McDonald, a redistricting expert at George Mason University. “But when we look deeper into the numbers, it’s probably not going to be as bad as you might think.”…”


Might The Pink Flamingo remind

“…Texas, continuing seven consecutive decades of growth, will gain the most seats with four more House members in 2012. Florida gains two, while Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington each gain one.

States losing seats include Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All those states lost one seat apiece, save for New York and Ohio, which lost two each. …”

Census Chart

From PJ Media

“…Looking a bit more broadly, most of the gainers are 2008 McCain states, while the losers are Obama states (except LA and MO). I won’t belabor the obvious.  The new maps are unhelpful to Obama and the Democrats since the net Electoral College change tilts toward Republicans…”

Pajamas Media

2 thoughts on “Counting Those Elephants Before They Hatch?

  1. I wonder if the republicans are going to stone Lindsey Graham if all the poop activist Mike Rogers says he has on him comes to light. This is revenge for Graham’s vote against DADT. It really stinks.

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