Ron Paul is currently polling 7% in Iowa. That does not matter. He will win the straw poll today.
The Pink Flamingo has been telling you, for ages, that Ron Paul wins straw polls because they are bought and paid for. He has cheated his way through the CPAC straw polls for two years. This is no different. His mindless robotic followers, will make it so. If he does not win, I will be shocked, shocked!
“...Texas Rep. Ron Paul has won the rights for the premier lot at the Ames Republican Presidential Straw Poll, set for August 13. The Texas Republican and current Republican presidential candidate purchased the key spot with a $31,000 payment, outbidding rivals….Mr. Paul’s bid allows his supporters to show support for Mr. Paul’s presidential campaign outside of the Iowa State University arena where the poll, which serves as both a political convention and a major poll, takes place….
The bidding for the polling location comes as Mr. Paul performed poorly in a Des Moines Register Poll released Sunday. The Texas Republican received just 7 percent support, a figure in line with recent polling data.
The Texas Republican has spent months campaigning in the state, meeting with potential supporters and Republican leaders….”
“…If you know of any Ron Paul supporters that would like to go to the Ames Straw poll next Saturday to vote for him, please let me know and I will get them free tickets. Thanks!…”
“…“Bus transportation will be provided from your county.” This is HUGE. Providing free buses from every corner of the state is how the real contenders compete. (Our fundraising the past four years has paid off!) Iowa is a big state, and committing this early to servicing all 99 counties will be important to get people there.
“Tickets are paid for. ” The straw poll is a fundraiser for the Iowa GOP. They know they have the presidential candidates over a barrel, so they charge for tickets in order to vote in the poll. Not unusual. However, the last time around the campaign –even the day of the event — wouldn’t commit to buying people’s tickets so they could even vote. I chalk it up to not knowing how it works and what’s expected. Lesson learned; onward and upward.
Students. The campaign is subtly emphasizing high school seniors and college students. The website emphasizes that in order to participate in the Hawkeye Cauci and vote in the general election, one needs to be of majority age as of the general election, Nov. 6, 2012.
** Citizens who are 16 and 1/2 years old **<>** (born before Nov 6, 1994) will be old enough to vote in the general election in Nov ’12, and can therefore vote in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll in three months. ** Additionally, students who attend an Iowa college (presumably recognizing out of state students, but who attend an Iowa college) can vote in the Straw Poll as well.
Seriously, outside of Des Moines, most of Iowa’s population is more than two and a half hours and $50 in gas money away from the voting. Ron Paul’s campaign is removing all the “barriers to entry” and going for the win this August.
This is very encouraging. Expect a moneybomb in August to heap the momentum….”
Ron Paul’s fans have turned things like the Ames Straw Poll into a mockery. It’s a done deal, bought and paid for by Ron Paul’s millions of fans.
“...Paul’s chances of pulling off an upset are entirely contingent on the number of people of voting. As he has demonstrated by winning a series of straw votes over the past few years, he has a very dedicated group of supporters who would walk over hot coals — maybe literally — for him.
But Paul has also shown — and he did it again in the debate last night — that he has little interest in expanding beyond that base of people. As the electorate gets larger the ability of Paul’s supporters to dominate it recedes. It’s why he didn’t win a single primary or caucus in the 2008 race.
The operative question in assessing Paul’s chances at winning at Ames tomorrow is just how many people will show up.
Virtually no one expects turnout to come near the 1999 Straw Poll when nearly 24,000 people voted thanks to heavy spending by both then Texas Gov. George W. Bush and wealthy businessman Steve Forbes. Bush won the vote that year with 7,418 votes — a massive total that may not be eclipsed for some time to come.
The two more likely voter universe estimates are 2007 and 1995.
In 2007, 14,000 people voted with Romney emerging victorious with 4,516 votes. (Paul finished fifth in that straw ballot with 1,305 votes.)
In 1995, just 10,500 voted as then Sens. Bob Dole (Kans.) and Phil Gramm (Texas) tied for first place by each winning 2,582 votes.
The 3,500 vote difference between overall turnout in 1995 and 2007 may make all the difference in assessing Paul’s chances of winning.
In a 1995 turnout model, 3,000 votes for any one candidate is likely to win it and several smart strategists in the state believe Paul could get to that number. In the 2007 turnout model, though, 3,000 isn’t enough votes to win — although it would likely guarantee Paul a top three finish.
“Turnout under 12,000 favors Ron Paul,” said one veteran GOP straw poll watcher. “Turnout over 14,000 favors Bachmann.”…”