Iowa is annoyed with Rick Perry. It seems he thumbed his nose at them and did his thing in South Carolina and New Hampshire on Saturday. He took away some of their precious attention, and helped put their petty little spoiled brat politics into perspective.
They’re not all that!
The usual libertarian sources are trumpeting the fact that Ron Paul did so well in the Ames Straw Poll. They’re ignoring the fact that the winner of the straw poll usually does not win the nomination. Same thing happens with those beloved caucuses. The winner does not necessarily win the nomination.
There’s a good reason for this.
The spoiled brats in Iowa who demand politicians scrape and bow to them are not necessarily connected to the real world. Iowa and the rest of the GOP have very little in common. The rest of us in the GOP don’t require our candidates make fools of themselves and pander. We have a little respect for them.
“…The Ames Straw poll is reasonably predictive of the Iowa Caucuses, which is not particularly predictive of the nomination. But, because they both come early in the process when the media is starving for something to cover, they get inordinate, undeserved attention. To use a sports analogy, Ames is like the first big scrimmage of training camp and the Caucuses are the first preseason game of the NFL season. A lot of ink is spilled on those, too, because fans are desperate for information about their teams. But teams frequently go undefeated in the preseason and miss the playoffs entirely, while it’s not unusual for Super Bowl winners to have had lousy preseasons. In both football and Iowa, then, what really matters is avoiding catastrophic injuries in order to survive to the games that count…”
From the Frum Forum:
‘”…The straw poll has no predictive (or even descriptive!) value. In 2007 Rudy Giuliani and John McCain together received a grand total of less than 2% of the vote. A visitor from Mars would have never guessed that one of these gentlemen was the indisputable front-runner at the time, topping 40% in nationwide polls of Republicans, and the other would eventually go on to win the nomination. Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo and Tommy Thompson each got a four digit number of votes – not bad in a poll with a total of just 14 thousand participants (especially compared to McCain’s 101 votes). Between the three of them they got over 36% of the vote. Each and every one of the three then dropped out before Christmas. In other words, over a third of the vote went to candidates who were not even candidates when the election year actually started. Furthermore, the poll also failed to predict the winner of the Iowa caucus four months later.
This year the straw poll is an outright disaster which may well hurt the party in the eyes of the voters (fortunately, the disaster was mitigated by Governor Perry’s presidential candidacy announcement drawing away a lot of media attention). Both the winner and the close runner-up are extremists, and nobody else won even half as many votes as either of them. Not only do the two top vote getters profess crazy views, but neither of them has any chance of winning the nomination. If nominated, neither of them has any chance of winning the election (even if the Democrats reciprocated by nominating Dennis Kucinich, the election would be won by a sane independent candidate). And if elected, neither of them is capable of governing. And yet they won a combined total of over 56% of the vote. What does this say about the party to a casual observer (e.g. an independent voter in a swing state)?!…”
How long are the rest of us going to put up with this dictatorship in Iowa. It is profoundly unfair to the rest of us, especially in late primary states where it doesn’t even matter. By the time we get to vote in a primary, they’re just a few weeks away from the convention. New Mexico could do something about it, but don’t bet on it. The GOP here is abjectly clueless. It is not even fun being a Republican in New Mexico. Why bother? Half the time the NMGOP is an embarrassment.
It is so pathetic in late primary states, there’s no reason to even bother endorsing a candidate. Why bother? Why bother working for one? What we have to say DOES NOT MATTER. Those of us who live in states other than Iowa, New Hampshire, SC, FL and Super Tuesday states have ABSOLUTELY NO VOICE in the primary system.
Back to Iowa.
We need to pull the plug.
The media is going around acting like Sparkles Bachmann has already won the nomination. Good thing THAT rarely happens.
The entire process in Iowa is corrupt, just like ethanol. If it were honest, they would have a real straw poll where the votes were not purchased. It’s nothing but a high profile fundraiser for the state’s GOP.
One of these days the rest of us are going to gang up on Iowa. I’m waiting for that day.