I have yet to see anyone take note that we are dealing with regional candidates. Newt is obviously banking on the South. Santorum is doing quite well in the Mid-west. Romney is taking the liberal North. That alone should cause Republicans with just a little big of wisdom to run screaming from him. The North DOES NOT elect Republican presidents. The South and Midwest does.
The current primary schedule was designed to give Mitt an early bump and get it over with. It was designed, top-heavy with states who would be going for him. Now, though, the best laid plans of the abjectly corrupt Karl Rove and his Crossroads group and the utterly incompetent and allegedly corrupt Reince Priebus have gone amiss. (Then again, if the latest studies on incompetent people are accurate, Priebus is so incompetent he doesn’t know he is incompetent.)
With the exception of a few states, Mitt Romney now has no clear path to victory, no matter how much money he spends destroying the GOP.
According to The Pink Flamingo’s dyslexic calculations, approximately 1175 delegates have yet to be awarded. Of these, a goodly number of these states are “proportional”. Several are state conventions. According to the GOP 1,144 delegates are needed to win.
After Super Tuesday:
- Romney – 386
- Santorum – 159
- Gingrich – 120* (Florida is NOT following the rules)
- Paul – 73
It would appear that Mitt Romney has a “clear” path to victory. The problem is the fact that he really doesn’t, unless he has, about $125 million or so (my low-ball calculations) to spend on negative ads. The only way he ever wins is to spend so many millions on negative ads that people are so disgusted they don’t go out and vote.
Sure, he can still win, but he’s not going to to well in Mississippi, or Alabama, Pennsylvania, Texas, Kansas, or Louisiana. One of the reasons is that he appears to be something of a “regional” non-GOP candidate. The other is the governors of these states are not in the tank for him the way some of the “front” loaded states were. It is going to be more difficult for him to cheat out a win (which he has been doing) in most states.
I fully expect him to win New Mexico, but then we’re cursed with a slimy governor who will do anything to advance her own career to be VP. Expect nasty things here. Fortunately, we don’t amount to a hill of beans in the grand scheme of things.
California is a winner-take-all state. That’s going to help him. It is also an open primary. Because he is the one Dems want to face Obama, they’re going to go out and vote for him.
By this time, it is going to be clear, that, if Romney does limp to the nomination, he is going to be so badly damaged Barack Obama will cake-walk to reelection. Perhaps that has been the plan, all along. The only thing I see preventing his reelection is the manipulation of high gas prices through Wall Street speculation on oil.
I suspect, if this is the case, Romney is going to be so badly damaged, we’re going to hope and pray for a brokered convention.
“…“I’d be wondering who on my campaign staff gets fired first,” wrote Erick Erickson at the conservative blog RedState. “Were I Mitt Romney I’d be wondering how I spent 5.5 times as much money as Rick Santorum and barely won Ohio… Mitt Romney has been running since 2006, has the best organization, and the most money. He won his home state of Michigan by less than 3%. He won Ohio barely after pouring in money.”
“A win is a win is a win. But with each Romney win, he comes away even more badly bruised,” Erickson added. “What a mess.”
John Hawkins at the RightWingNews blog agreed, saying, “[G]iven his crushing advantage in money, organization, endorsements, and conservative media help, his performance was underwhelming.”
“Mitt Romney will exit the ten Super Tuesday contests with more delegates than anyone else, but his political reputation damaged,” said conservative writer John Fund at National Review. “Given his crushing financial advantage, Romney should have done better tonight.”…”
The bottom line here – we’re screwed. The conservative punditry who bet their entire reputation and the bank are looking increasingly foolish. I don’t think they realize how foolish they look, still propping up a man who is a total fake. With a few exceptions, I’m starting to see pundits hedge their bets. It doesn’t make much difference. The once great Charles Krauthammer has damaged himself, tremendously. Ann Coulter is “finished” – which is not a bad thing. Matt Drudge has made a fool out of himself. Jennifer Rubin has become a joke. More and more people are turning off FOX.
I’m a bit sick and tired of being considered a little “flaky” and “very conservative”. I’m not. I’m far less conservative than I was 4 years ago. I simply do not like Mitt Romney and will not vote for him, under any circumstance, I don’t give a rip who he blackmails into running with him as his VP.
The man is corrupt, mendacious, liberal, and obsessed. He is vicious, vindictive, and power hungry. The last thing we need is another Nixon. If he is elected, he would be worse.
What fascinates me is the way those who align themselves with him end up ruining themselves and their reputations. That alone is a terrible commentary about this man they want us to make king.