My heart belongs to The Big Red Machine. I came of age watching my beloved Reds, with my man, Johnny in the lead! One of the things I learned from those glorious years was Sparky Anderson Baseball. Sparky
was is always right. You play the percentages, the stats, knowing that you are probably going to come out ahead. Certain people hit a certain way on a certain pitch. You know that and you move your fielders to catch the blasted ball. There are times of the year when a specific player might be hot. You plan accordingly. When a pitcher gets rattled, Sparky ‘Captain Hook’ Anderson would pull them, quick. A rattled pitcher is a losing pitcher. That’s the way he played his game. Was he right? Well, just look at the winning seasons, championships, and World Series victories. He knew how to win.
Sparky Anderson played the percentages. Politics are a heck of a lot like baseball. You play the percentages. 2014 is the 6th year of Barack Obama’s presidency. Democrats should have been bright enough to plan accordingly. Fact is, Barack Obama should have planned accordingly, and played the percentages. He might have avoided Tuesday’s bloodbath. It isn’t that the election was a referendum on him. People don’t like the GOP. They said so in the exit polls. They were, though, suffering from the Six Year Itch.
It happens every time. It is so predictable, you would think presidents and their handlers would figure it out, and learn how to deal with it. Bill Clinton did a fairly decent job. I don’t remember anyone else coming up with a viable alternative. Six years into an administration everyone is tried. No one is happy. The best and brightest have cashed it in for bigger and better jobs, speaking engagements, and six or seven figure book deals.
According to the WPost:
“…The tension represented something more fundamental than money — it was indicative of a wider resentment among Democrats in the Capitol of how the president was approaching the election and how, they felt, he was dragging them down. All year on the trail, Democratic incumbents would be pounded for administration blunders beyond their control — the disastrous rollout of the health-care law, problems at the Department of Veterans Affairs, undocumented children flooding across the border, Islamic State terrorism and fears about Ebola….”
Let’s face it, according to Harry Truman, the buck stops in the Oval Office. Any seated president should know that he’s going to be skunked in the 6th year mid-terms. If indeed, this is the case, and the WPost article is true, why did Obama basically blow it? What’s going on here? Why?
It’s strange. Exit polls show voters prefer liberal policies, so why elect Republicans? And – what happened to that Democratic voter? Well, she did not bother showing up at the polls.
“...Comparing yesterday’s exit polls to those of 2012, the first thing that jumps out at you is a big shift in age demographics: under-30 voters dropped from 19 percent of the electorate in 2012 to 13 percent in 2014, while over-65 voters climbed from 16 percent in 2012 to 22 percent in 2014. That’s quite close to the age demographics of 2010.
In terms of race and ethnicity, the white share of the electorate increased modestly from 72 percent in 2012 to 75 percent this year, not quite back up to the 77 percent whites represented in 2010. And interestingly enough, Republican performance among white voters didn’t change at all from the 59/39 margin achieved by Mitt Romney. What did change is that Republicans boosted their percentage among African-Americans from 6 percent won by Romney to 10 percent yesterday; from 27 percent to 35 percent among Latinos; and from 26 percent to 49 percent among Asians. It’s likely the age demographics had some impact on Republican minority performance, particularly among Latinos, given the relatively strong attachment of young Latinos to the Democratic Party. And in general, it’s probable more conservative minority voters were more likely to vote.
But another way to look at it is that minority voting preferences are returning to their pre-Obama level — still strongly Democratic, but not so strongly that in a poor turnout year they offset the heightened Republican preferences of white voters.
There was talk going into the election that another key Obama demographic, under-30 voters, was suddenly tilting Republican, at least among the segment willing to vote in a midterm. But in the end under-30 voters preferred Democrats 54/43–again, very similar to the splits in 2010 and down six points from the 60/37 pro-Democratic ratio of 2012….”
According to E. J. Dionne, Barack Obama needs to reconnect with middle America. It’s an excellent idea, considering how he has disconnected himself from the reality of the country. If he cannot, we’re looking at a failed presidency. I think we’re looking at that, already. I heard from a professor at a major university. Life-long Democrat. He’s heart-sick. It is fascinating to watch the beginnings of a civil war starting to brew. There is a huge anti-Hillary wing in the Dems. According to them, she and Bill are responsible for everything that went wrong.
Then again, maybe the Dems just had lousy candidates.
In New Mexico, the GOP now controls the state house. This is NOT good. Susana Martinez is bought and paid for by ALEC. The Koch Brothers now control our state. Heaven help us all. From one of the top political blogs:
“...Now that the election has passed Democrats must be waking up wondering what hit them. New Mexico Democrats need new leadership. It’s anyone’s for the taking but Democrats need to be careful to back some leadership that truly has the guts to take on the Martinez machine. House Speaker Ken Martinez, Tim Keller, Gary King, Hector Balderas, Maggie Toulouse, Martin Heinrich, Michelle Lujan Grisham, and Ben Ray Lujan all took a soft approach to attacking the Governor and her ilk from 2011-2013 when it might have been unpopular to do so. But that was the best time to soften up the Governor and weaken her for 2014. Maybe these Cowardly Lions have suddenly found their courage; But if their past behavior is any indication of their future behavior they will continue to bow to the advice of their highly-paid consultants; which is: look out for your own self-interest and not do anything risky to upset anyone because your #1 priority is getting yourself re-elected. As long as that continues to be the case, the party will continue to stumble and look like the disorganized mess we saw on this election night.
So, what will Democrats say after election day 2014? After the Martinez machine ran up the scoreboard and increased Republican power in Santa Fe? Will Democratic leaders say we are going to work with this Governor and her new team in a bipartisan fashion or will they come out swinging and say they are ready to fight her, and fight her publicly at every turn? That’s what national Republicans did to Barack Obama and look how that worked out for them….”
What a bloody mess.